The Raleigh real estate market is showing some interesting shifts as we head into 2026. With months of supply trending lower and price reductions becoming more common, many buyers and sellers are wondering what's next. Let's dive into the latest data from SW Raleigh's key markets.

Raleigh Real Estate Market Statistics

Recent data from December 2025 reveals a shifting landscape across SW Raleigh towns. Median sales prices range from $457,445 in Fuquay Varina to $607,500 in Holly Springs, with Cary and Apex hovering around $580,000 to $585,000.

The months of supply tell a compelling story. Most towns are sitting at 2.0 to 2.5 months of inventory, pushing the market toward seller territory, except Fuquay Varina at 3.7 months. We've seen a notable shift away from the balanced 4 to 6 month range we'd been approaching.

Price reductions remain prevalent, with 36% to 60% of November closings requiring discounts to sell. Meanwhile, the list-to-sales price ratios have dropped to 94.9% to 97.4%, and most homes (56% to 80% depending on location) are now selling under the asking price. Only 5% to 19% of homes are fetching above the list price across these markets.

What to Expect in 2026

The market is normalizing, not collapsing. Buyers will continue being selective, carefully weighing their options before making offers. Growth will remain slow, with some areas potentially experiencing modest declines rather than dramatic price drops.

Market adjustment reflects the search for equilibrium after years of unprecedented growth. Median days on market remain under 30 days, indicating properties are still moving relatively quickly when priced correctly.

Is Raleigh Market Crashing in 2026?

The short answer: no. A true market crash requires forced selling when homeowners can't afford mortgage payments due to job losses or financial hardship. We're not seeing those indicators in Raleigh.

The unemployment rate remains below the national average, wage growth in the Triangle continues steadily (particularly in high-skilled sectors), and Raleigh remains a top destination for net migration. These fundamentals don't support a crash scenario, though they also don't guarantee the rapid appreciation of recent years.

Tips for Buyers & Sellers

Buyers

Leverage price reductions in negotiations. Sellers become more flexible after cutting prices. Don't hesitate to make strategic offers. Remember that terms sometimes matter more than price, so understand what's most important to your situation.

Sellers

Pricing accuracy is critical. Overpricing costs you time and money as you chase the market down. Invest in presentation. Proper staging can make the difference between selling quickly at a good price or sitting on the market with multiple reductions.

The Bottom Line

Don't try to time the real estate market perfectly. It's nearly impossible. The market rarely sends clear "buy now" signals. Success in real estate comes from making thoughtful decisions aligned with your finances, lifestyle, and long-term goals rather than attempting to predict short-term fluctuations.

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